Nancy Guthrie Suspect Made One Rookie Mistake on Night of Kidnapping, Expert Says

New developments have emerged in the case of missing 84-year-old Nancy Guthrie as authorities intensify their investigation and analyze surveillance footage of a masked individual believed to be connected to her disappearance.

Nancy, who is the mother of Savannah Guthrie, co-host of NBC’s Today, has been missing for more than ten days. The Federal Bureau of Investigation recently released still images and video clips taken from a Nest security camera outside her home in Tucson. The footage provides the first clear look at a person investigators believe may be linked to the case.

The video shows an individual dressed in light-colored clothing approaching the home at night with their face covered. In one frame, the person appears to be carrying a firearm in a way that has drawn attention from former law enforcement professionals.

Mark Harrigan, a former FBI agent who previously led the bureau’s Firearms Training Program, told the New York Post that the method of carrying the weapon immediately stood out to him. According to Harrigan, the firearm was positioned openly at the front of the suspect’s body rather than concealed.

He explained that individuals familiar with firearms—especially those committing crimes—typically keep weapons hidden to avoid attracting attention. Carrying it in plain view, he suggested, is unusual and could indicate a lack of experience. In his view, someone accustomed to handling firearms would more likely secure it discreetly, such as at the hip.

Private investigator Andy Kay reportedly reached a similar conclusion, describing the positioning as awkward and possibly a “rookie” error. While these opinions remain speculative, they have fueled discussion about whether the suspect may lack professional or criminal sophistication.

Experts have also examined how the masked figure interacted with the home’s security camera. In the footage, the individual appears to grab nearby plants and attempt to block the camera’s line of sight.

Harrigan noted that a more seasoned offender might have arrived prepared with tools—such as spray paint to obscure the lens or equipment to remove the device entirely. Instead, the attempt to use surrounding foliage has been interpreted by some as another potential sign of inexperience.

Authorities released the footage about ten days after Nancy was reported missing. Investigators said the delay was partly due to technical challenges. They discovered that the physical security camera had been removed from the property, and Nancy did not subscribe to Google Home’s paid cloud storage service, meaning the footage was not automatically backed up.

FBI Director Kash Patel stated that investigators were ultimately able to recover video from residual backend data, suggesting the footage was reconstructed from damaged or partially deleted files. The effort highlights the advanced digital forensic methods now available to law enforcement agencies.

Former prosecutor and defense attorney John W. Day commented that the case demonstrates how investigators can work with technology companies to retrieve crucial data, even when devices have been tampered with or removed.

The FBI has offered a $50,000 reward for information that leads to Nancy Guthrie’s safe return or the identification of her alleged captor. Savannah Guthrie has shared the surveillance images widely on social media, urging the public to help.

Investigators have confirmed they are reviewing multiple persons of interest. In an interview on Fox News, Director Patel stated that significant progress has been made, but he emphasized that no one is officially labeled a suspect without sufficient evidence.

Earlier in the week, deputies from the Pima County Sheriff’s Department detained and questioned a man during a traffic stop south of Tucson. He was later released without charges.

The man, Carlos Palazuelos, later identified himself publicly and told Fox News that investigators approached him because they believed his eyes resembled those of the person in the footage. Palazuelos denied any involvement, explaining that he works as a delivery driver in the Tucson area and may have delivered packages near Nancy’s home. Authorities have stated that he is not currently considered a suspect.

Despite commentary from former agents and private investigators, law enforcement officials continue to caution against jumping to conclusions based on speculation. They have urged the public to focus on providing credible information rather than drawing assumptions from online analysis.

As the search continues, the central priority remains Nancy Guthrie’s safe recovery. The release of the surveillance footage has increased public awareness while also underscoring the complexity of the case.

For Nancy’s family, each update brings both hope and anxiety. For investigators, every tip and frame of video represents a possible lead. And for the broader community, the case serves as a reminder of how quickly lives can be disrupted—and how crucial cooperation and reliable information are during a crisis.

For now, authorities continue their search.