Five months into Donald Trump’s second term, the fog is finally lifting — and the latest polling numbers reveal a nation more conflicted than ever. One state in particular delivered a result nobody saw coming.
At the start of 2025, Trump hovered at a 49% approval rating. Not a landslide, not a collapse — just steady. But the newest nationwide survey from Emerson College Polling shows the ground shifting beneath him.
According to the data, 45% of voters approve of Trump’s performance, 46% disapprove, and 9% remain undecided. The country is essentially split down the middle — again — but the mood behind the numbers is even more telling.
More than 53% of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track, while 48% think it’s moving in the right direction. That tension — optimism versus frustration — is shaping the political climate more than any speech, rally, or press conference.
Spencer Kimball of Emerson College Polling pointed to what could become the defining force of the midterms: independent voters. Right now, 37% lean Democrat, 27% lean Republican, and a massive 36% haven’t chosen a side at all. That undecided group isn’t just large — it’s explosive. Whoever wins them over wins the midterms.
But the real political earthquake didn’t come from the national numbers.
It came from Texas.
A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll delivered a shock: Trump’s approval in Texas has fallen to 44%, with 55% disapproving. In one of the reddest, most reliably conservative states in America, that number was a wake-up call.
And the details behind it paint an even sharper picture:
Economy: 51% of Texans disapprove
Inflation: 52% disapprove
Prices/cost of living: 34% approval — one of Trump’s weakest scores in the state
Texas hasn’t flipped blue — not even close — but the dissatisfaction is unmistakable. In a place where Republicans usually enjoy deep goodwill, frustration over rising costs is breaking through party loyalty.
Put the national and Texas polls together, and the story becomes clear:
Trump isn’t losing the country — but he isn’t winning it either. And in a state he counts on, cracks are beginning to show.
These polls reveal a country divided not just politically, but emotionally and economically. About half of voters believe Trump is doing enough. The other half believe the nation is heading in the wrong direction. And millions — especially independents — are stuck in the middle, watching, waiting, and demanding answers on the issues they actually feel: wages, inflation, stability, and trust.
This isn’t a collapse. But it is a warning.
Trump’s approval is sitting on a knife’s edge. What happens next — especially with independents and states like Texas showing signs of strain — will determine whether this is just early turbulence… or the beginning of a shift that could reshape the entire election landscape.